We buy until we die. – Me so tired…

Last week, the main goal for buyers was to remain above 2 week balance low – 5720’s-30’s mostly in part to protect the FOMC range. Monday evening’s liquidation move did just that and gave enough steam to reverse Monday’s move back to balance top. On Friday, we had a strong move higher breaking above the 10/9 spike.

For this week, will use Friday’s range as our guide ending the week with a P profile. Friday’s high marks a poor high which will need to be cleaned up. If accepted, buyers can see a move towards 5890 for a 50% extension of range. On the other hand, Friday’s low marks PPI’s low and lower range of CPI including Thursday’s VAL. Failing to hold Friday’s low, can see Thursday’s inside day low followed by the single prints at 5808.

Will continue to observe the 10/9 Spike (5840-5846.5) as this includes a remaining single print (5839.75-5845) from Friday. Also serves as the midpoint on Friday’s range along with last Wednesday and Thursday highs.

Buyers need to sustain above 2 week balance – 5797.75. Acceptance above Friday’s high can see 5872 (CPI 100%) followed by Friday 50% and 100% extensions 5891 and 5913 respectively.

Weakness will begin to show below Thursday’s IBH 5834 which also marks PPI’s event candle high. The daily expected low is 5822 and lines up roughly with Friday’s low. Failure to hold here and selling can increase back towards 2 week balance top 5797.75. Failure to hold will rotate to the other side.

Until a previous day low is breached and opens the following day lower with acceptance, shorts may continue to be pre-mature. With that said, I am mindful of the potential near term “top” with seasonality or buyer exhaustion perhaps setting in.

I see a lot of traders “chase” in the middle, and “fear” at the edges. I say chase at the edges and “fear” in the middle. I am certain you’ll see good results.

Weekly Expected: 5764 / 5942
10/14 Expected: 5822 / 5884