I remain bullish but cautious as from last 2 weeks, new sellers, and to some accounts big sellers, have entered the picture and have stuffed price nearly every day at NY open. There are three excess highs that are bearish until cleaned up. This is on 9/26, 9/27, and 9/30 – along with a potential 4th excess from 10/4. There is still an open large spike from 9/30 after Quarter end window dressing and now a spike from this past Friday into now 2 week balance top. Bulls have been lacking breakout momentum and sellers failed, what would have been perfect sell last week.

Near-term picture is about last week’s low and 2 week balance bottom. At the moment, FOMC range continues to be protected with the high being 5756 and balance bottom 5733. This is a line in the sand for bulls. They must continue to protect the FOMC range (5756-5673) and especially the 5730-20 area which may hold another hit, but has been tested to death.

Buyers will seek acceptance above Friday’s spike (base: 5797.5, top: 5804.75), followed by acceptance of the 9/30 spike (base: 5799, top: 5820.25). At this point buyers need to clean up the three excess highs with 9/26’s marking the 50% balance extension, 50% Friday range extension, and 9/26 ETH ATH. A break above can see 5850-60.

Weakness can show below Friday’s spike base but more so below 5783-5776. This range holds PCE/Inside day low, 2 week balance POC, last weeks VAH and the halfback of NFP event candle. A break lower can see Friday’s low tested which sellers would need to press. If accepted lower, 2 week balance bottom and last week’s VAL will come into question. At this point buyers must show up yet again or a break lower can finally see the value gap filled at 5710 and perhaps down to 5700 NVPOC. Further weakness may see FOMC lows and Spike down from 9/18.

Weekly Expected Range: 5705 / 5885
Events: 10/9 – FOMC Minutes, 10/10 – CPI, Jobless, 10/11 – PPI/Michigan Sentiment. All week we have Fed speakers