ES Weekend 11/10

Massive move last week. Regardless of the election outcome, seasonality wise, long for the election has been the plan. Now, the dust will be begin the settle and will be looking out for new balance to form. Until Daily OTFU (one-time framing up) ends, trend up is your friend. 

Buyers really have nothing to worry about until 5900 is lost. This is the Election Day low. I would expect defense of the 7 day balance top, 5925 to be defended at least a few times. At the moment, that’s 100+ pts lower. 

For this week, I will use Friday’s range (6004.5-6040.5) as a guide, including the FOMC range (5985.5-6007) which happened on Thursday. Friday’s low, represents FOMC high, Friday EU highs and just below Thursday’s Value Gap (6001.50). This will be the first area for buyers to attempt. Weakness doesn’t really begin to take shape until below FOMC’s low at 5985.50 which I do expect to be a buyable spot with a look below and fail trade. If sellers gain momentum here, then the gap fill at 5967 becomes a magnet. The entire 5967-5977 range I would look for additional buyers to begin to show up. I believe a supported buy here at or above the gap fill and a reclaim of the FOMC low would be very bullish.

If we continue higher, we have Friday 50% extension 6058, 7 day balance 200% extension 6070-85, and weekly expected high at 6093. Weekly extremes isn’t until 6125-6140.

  • Weekly EM: 70pts – 5953 / 6093
  • 11/11 Daily EM: 25pts – 5998 / 6048
  • Friday Extns: 5968.75, 5989.75, 6058.5, 6076.75
  • FOMC Range: 5985.5-6007
  • Election Range: 5901-5967
  • Spike 11/6: 5964-6967
  • Value Gaps: 6001, 5943,
  • Gap: 5967
  • Single Print: 5943-5945.5
  • Last WK Distributions: Upper: 6975.25-6041.25, Middle: 5900.25-5965.75
  • Lower: 5724.5-5822.25

Generally, any selling should be considered profit taking and not necessarily a “top” until we break previous day lows and confirm lower and form lower highs. With that said, be on your toes. No over trading.