Are things changing under the hood and is seasonality still around?

Last week we saw just about every day US sells the open and reverses late afternoon. EU would end up doing the same except for the drastic no selling allowed Wednesday night session. This pattern repeated with buyers showing up at the most perfect trend line since Friday’s (9/20) low. Did all this change this past Friday? So far this looks like a failed breakout of balance. So caution is warranted.

I do generally believe we can reach higher still but will remain cautiously bullish as we enter October. A tad bit longer view is the bulls don’t have to worry until we break FOMC’s low.

For this week, focus will be on Friday’s inside day. Thursday’s attempt at a breakout did fizzle but may not be completely out of the picture. ATH was made during overnight hours and will need to be tested. With that said, a breakdown of Friday and Thursday’s low will single a potential change and may bring out more sellers.

5781.75 needs to hold on Monday’s RTH session, perhaps with a look below and fail. If so, then look towards the balance top and apply balance rules. On the shared chart, you’ll see this past week was spent in an upper distribution area where a Low Value Node (LVN) can be seen at our balance bottom If weakness does occur, I would expect buyers to be ready down there. This is roughly 5750-5730.

Buyers will need to reclaim balance top, 5797 and 5804. Reclaiming these levels will give more confidence to longs and can open both Friday and Thursday highs, 5821 and 5830 respectively.

Put an anchored VWAP from FOMC (9/18) cash session open. This should land around 5770. Last week’s VAL also sits there. So keep an eye on it.

If we look below Friday’s low and reclaim 5790 or so, then that’s a long. Same would be true for Thursday’s low and reclaiming Friday’s close.