Rules

Spike Rules

In Market Profile, a spike is referenced as the rally or sell off that took place in the last 30 minutes of the RTH session when fresh highs or lows are made. Acceptance/Rejection is confirmed on 30 minute timeframe.

Scenario A: Last 30 Min Rally

  • Prices opening above Spike top is bullish. Monitor for continued acceptance above.
  • Prices opening within the Spike range is bullish, though buyers/sellers trying to determine a fair value/price to conduct business
  • Prices opening below Spike Base is bearish, as market participants have rejected the late day rally

Scenario B: Last 30 Min Sell off

  • Prices opening below Spike Bottom is bearish. Monitor for continued acceptance below.
  • Prices opening within the Spike range is bearish, though buyers/sellers trying to determine a fair value/price to conduct business.
  • Prices opening above Spike Base is bullish, as market participants have rejected the late day sell-off. Monitor for continued acceptance below.


Gap rules:

Gap Rules applies when an index opens outside the previous day RTH range.

True Gap Up: When Opening is above previous day high, it’s said ‘Market is opening on a True Gap Up’

True Gap Down: When opening is below previous day low, it’s said ‘Market is opening on a True Gap Down’

Gap Halfback: Midpoint between Opening and previous day high/low.

The Gap Rule:

  • When opening on a True Gap, watch for interest in the direction of the Gap, IF lacking, then go with the gap.
  • First target is the Halfback, that is the mid point between the open versus previous day low (Assuming it’s a Gap Down Scenario). Vice versa for Gap Up Scenario,
  • Next target the Full Gap.

A ~50pt gap on ES & ~300pt gap on NQ, would be exhaustion territory for over night session. Large gap like this can be choppy at open but would expect a 50-100% retrace at some point.

Balance Rules:

Extreme ends of a Balance are Support/Resistance, unless proven otherwise.

In the event of a Balance Break, look to follow the trend and target 50% and then 100% of the range Extension, unless you have a ‘Look Above/Below and Fail’, which means you are then targeting the Balance Halfback (mid point) and the extreme other end.

Do not get new longs at the balance top from within and do not get new shorts at the balance bottom from within. You wait for confirmation.