Getting pretty grim out there in twitter land. After hours on Friday, we saw a decent sell down to a gap level 5396. Will need to see how Sunday night treats this. We’re at a point where buyers need to step in or we can continue to sell down to 5380, 5370 (RTH gap close) and 5340’s where Aug 12 weekly low is and Monday’s daily expected low. Honestly, below 5350 and especially 5330 will be ugly and opens Aug lows.

The breakdown Thursday and continuation on Friday has left a lot of trapped longs from earlier in the week which leaves us a load of supply to chew at if buyers want higher above 5530.

For this week, 5436-40 is my bias level and will use Friday’s range as a guide. Above will be looking at 5470-95 (Single Print) where I would expect sellers to step in. 5490 is last week’s VAL (RTH) and the midpoint for NFP. Breaking higher will target the spike range 5516-5544. If we can find 5530 to be supportive (more than a blink’s worth) I will look for 5570-90.

Below 5540, sellers remain in control and would look for the lower gap levels to fill – 5396 Gap, 5381 Value Gap, and 5369, RTH gap close. Continued weakness as mentioned will be Aug 12 low at 5348 followed by the July 29 week lower distribution 5330’s, and then 5300-5285 on lower single prints.

Buyers have a lot to prove and sellers need to continue to press. Last week we moved 250pts on ES so the potential for a retracement is there with the 50% fib sitting around 5531 (at the moment) and as it should be in life, this halfway is at the most recent consolidation and breakdown. This area either marks new ATH or new Q3 lows in the near future. I will be taking it easy an only taking what I need to keep the lights on. Capital preservation is paramount.